Global companies have listed more than $35 billion in costs from U.S. tariffs heading into third-quarter earnings.
Trump’s trade war has increased U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s.
He has regularly threatened more duties, but overall, the fog that paralyzed many businesses is clearing, allowing executives to forecast costs and make plans – including some price hikes.
Companies expected a combined financial hit of $21.0 billion to $22.9 billion for 2025, with an impact of nearly $15 billion calculated for 2026, according to a Reuters analysis of hundreds of corporate statements, regulatory filings and earnings calls between July 16 and September 30.
The total of more than $35 billion compares with $34 billion tallied in May, shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April rattled global supply chains.
But the trajectory masks a shift: the increase is largely due to Toyota’s, $9.5 billion estimate.
Many other companies have lowered their earlier worst-case forecasts after Trump reached lower-rate trade deals with the EU and Japan.
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Reuters reports said the figures combine annual and partial-year estimates from an overlapping group of firms. Both groups include about 60 firms.
French spirits makers Remy Cointreau, and Pernod Ricard PERP.PA both lowered estimates of tariff pain after the EU deal, while Sony, in August cut its forecast.
Trump also carved out exceptions, with only about a third of Brazil’s exports facing a 50% tariff, for instance.
Case in point: Trump earlier this month floated the idea of additional 100% tariffs on China. On Friday, he said the proposed tariffs would not be sustainable, and blamed Beijing for the latest tensions in trade talks between the two countries.
S&P 500 companies are projected to show an earnings growth rate of 9.3% in the July-September period, a decline from 13.8% in the second quarter, according to LSEG data. Much of that is on the back of the U.S. IT sector, driven by AI investment. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is expected to clock 0.5% growth, down from 4% in the previous quarter.
The pain is concentrated on companies that depend on countries that do not have trade deals.
Nike, heavily dependent on suppliers in Vietnam and other Asian countries, raised its tariff impact estimate late last month to $1.5 billion from $1 billion.
In Europe, Tefal kitchen-ware maker SEB, recently cut its profit outlook, citing weaker demand as customers adopted a wait-and-see attitude partly due to tariffs.
H&M also cautioned that U.S. tariffs on imports would weigh more heavily on margins in the quarter through November.
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